Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Sat Apr 05 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 06 2025 - 00Z Tue Apr 08 2025

...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on
Saturday; there is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Southern Appalachians, and the
Southeast on Sunday...

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley on Saturday;
there is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Appalachians and Central Gulf Coast/Southeast on Sunday...

...Light snow over parts of the Northeast on Saturday; Freezing
rain over parts of Northern New England on Saturday; light to
moderate snow over the Upper Great Lakes and light snow over the
Northeast on Sunday...

On Saturday, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the
lower Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast will move eastward,
with the northern portion of the front moving off the Northeast/
northern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening while the southern
half lingers over the southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. Moisture
flowing northward out of the Gulf of America will intersect the
boundary, producing life-threatening rain over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Sunday morning.  Severe, widespread
flash flooding is expected. In addition, areas that normally do
not experience flash flooding will flood. Furthermore, lives and
property are in great danger.

Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the front from parts of the Ohio Valley to the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley through
Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is an added threat of EF2 to
EF5 tornadoes and hail two inches or greater over parts of the
Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley, and severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the
region.

On Sunday, as the front moves eastward, the area of heavy rain
moves eastward to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Southern
Appalachians, and the Southeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys,
Southern Appalachians, and the Southeast from Sunday into Monday
morning.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Likewise, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves eastward and
reduces slightly over parts of the Southern Appalachians and
Central Gulf Coast/Southeast on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley
from Sunday through Monday morning.  The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm
wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall will be a minimal risk over parts of the southern
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
northern Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England on Saturday, with
rain over parts of the Northeast. Snow will develop over parts of
Northern New England. Along the rain-snow line, rain/freezing rain
areas will develop, producing ice accumulation of up to 0.10
inches from late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Further,
light rain and snow will develop over parts of the Southern Plains
on Saturday.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, another developing front over Central
Canada will move southeastward to the Lower Great Lakes, the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Southern Plans, and then northwestward to the
Northern Rockies by Monday evening.  The system will produce light
to moderate snow over the Upper Great Lakes and, to a lesser
extent, the Upper Mississippi Valley starting early Sunday morning
through Monday evening. Light snow will also develop over parts of
the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast, starting overnight on Sundays and
going into Monday evenings.

Furthermore, a third front will move onshore over the Pacific
Northwest on Sunday, advancing inland to the Northern
Intermountain Region and then dissipating by Monday. However, a
fourth front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on
Monday into Monday afternoon. The systems will produce light rain
over the Northwest Coast early Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon. As the front moves inland, the rain will move farther
inland into the Northwest and start over Northern California by
late Sunday afternoon. As the boundary moves farther inland, the
rain moves into the Northern Intermountain Region, and light snow
will develop at the highest elevations of the Cascades.


Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php