Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EDT Mon Apr 07 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 07 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 09 2025

...Moderate to heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms expected from
southeast Virginia to the central Gulf Coast Monday...

...Winter weather returns from parts of the Great Lakes to the interior
Northeast and northern New England through Tuesday...

...Strong cold front to bring much colder temperatures to the Eastern U.S.
through Wednesday...

...A series Pacific storms will bring unsettled weather to the Pacific
Northwest and the northern Rockies through midweek...

Several waves of low pressure along a slow-moving frontal boundary draped
from the southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast will be the focus for
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region on Monday.
Plentiful moisture and instability along and out ahead of the front will
support a moderate to heavy rain threat from portions of southeast
Virginia to the central Gulf Coast. Unlike the past several days, the rain
that falls on Monday should not be overly excessive; however, isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out. As a result, a
targeted Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall was introduced for
portions of southern Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle. A
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) remains in place for much of the southern
Eastern Seaboard into the central Gulf Coast. The moderate to heavy rain
and isolated flash flood threat will come to an end by Monday night as the
cold front picks up speed and sweeps offshore.

The same areas that are at risk of moderate to heavy rainfall on Monday
are also under the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms. This is
especially the case for parts of northern Florida, southeast Georgia, and
southern South Carolina where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather. In this region, moisture,
instability, and wind shear will come together to promote the development
of thunderstorms that are capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps
a tornado or two.   

Farther north on the cool side of the front, light to moderate rain
showers will overspread parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
on Monday, resulting in a damp start to the work week. Even farther north
across parts of the interior Northeast and northern New England, the air
will become cold enough to support a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and
freezing rain, particularly in the higher elevations. While any wintry
accumulations should mostly be light, it could still be enough to make for
some slippery travel across the region. Meanwhile, a potent low pressure
system and strong cold front tracking from the Great Lakes to northern New
England in conjunction with a deepening wave of low pressure off the
Canadian Maritimes will lead to more widespread snow Monday into Tuesday.
Most accumulations will again remain on the lighter side, but parts of
Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and especially Maine have the
potential to see accumulations near or exceed 6 inches. In the wake of the
cold front, the bigger story will be the much colder, more winter-like
temperatures that will overtake much of the Eastern U.S. through the
middle part of the week. High temperatures through this period will be
some 10 to 30 degrees below seasonal averages, with many places across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic struggling to get out of the 20s, 30s, and 40s.
The cold air moving over the Great Lakes will also result in lake-effect
snows downwind, leading to the possibility of locally higher snowfall
totals to boot.

Out West, a series of Pacific storms will bring episodes of unsettled
weather to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies through midweek.
These frontal systems will bring Pacific moisture inland, leading to
intermittent shower activity each day. Rain will fall across coastal
locations and the lower elevations while snow is expected across the high
country. The heaviest snowfall will be confined to the higher elevations
of the Olympic Mountains and the Cascades where several inches up to a few
feet is forecast over the next few days.

Otherwise, mainly dry and tranquil weather is in store for the remainder
of the country through Wednesday with high pressure largely in control.
While temperatures across the East will be well below normal, a warming
trend develops across the West with warmer than normal temperatures
gradually spreading into the Central U.S by the middle part of the week.

Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php