Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 11 2025 - 12Z Sun Apr 13 2025

...Stormy weather from the Mid-Atlantic into New England, with late season
accumulating snows possible in the higher elevations from northeast
Pennsylvania into eastern New York and central to northern New England...

...Cold front moving through the West will bring chances for thunderstorms
and enhanced fire risk to the Intermountain West and Plains...

...Record warmth expected through the weekend across the Southwest, Great
Basin, and Texas...

The mid to upper level flow continues to amplify across the CONUS, leading
to an active weather pattern across large portions of the eastern third of
the nation. An associated surface low is expected to form over the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and move offshore the east coast on Saturday.
Friday and Saturday will see stormy weather from the Carolinas into New
England over the next 48 hours. The southern Mid-Atlantic could see as
much as 2-3 inches of rainfall with this system over the next two days.
While this region could use the rainfall, isolated flooding may still be
possible along urban and low lying areas. On the southern end of the storm
system in north Florida and the Carolinas, the Storm Prediction Center has
a Marginal Risk for severe weather as shear and instability favor the
potential for strong wind gusts and some hail. On the north side of the
system, temperatures will be cold enough for late season accumulating snow
across the higher elevations from far northeast Pennsylvania, across
northwest New Jersey, northern and eastern New York State, and western,
central and northern New England. High temperatures will be on the cool
side in the 30s and 40s for coastal regions for the weekend.

A mid-level trough, surface cold front, is moving eastward across the West
Coast and Mountain West and will reach the Plains by Saturday. Downslope
winds, lee troughs, and low relative humidity ahead of the cold front will
promote some potential fire weather concerns. The Storm Prediction Center
has an Elevated fire weather risk across the northern Plains for today and
a Critical fire weather risk near the southern Plains and the southern
Intermountain West. Winds will be on the higher side, as some gusts could
be as high as 35 mph in the Critical fire area. As for the convective
side, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk across eastern
Wyoming and western South Dakota for the threat of wind gusts over 55 mph
with high-topped supercells on Saturday. General thunderstorms will be
possible on Sunday across the Midwest and Kansas/Colorado ahead of the
next storm system moving in.

While the overall amplified flow across the CONUS is leading to stormy
weather across large portions of the east, the western component of this
amplified pattern will support much above average to record warmth across
large portions of the western and central U.S.  Record high temperatures
are possible today and Saturday from the Southwest into the Great Basin
and across the southern Plains on Sunday. Temperatures in the low 100s to
middle 90s are generally forecast across the Southwest over the next 3
days. The central Plains and Midwest will also be as much as 20 degrees
above average ahead of the western trough. Temperatures in the 70s and 80s
will be widespread.

Elsewhere. a big story is the river flooding still ongoing over the Ohio
and Mississippi Valleys from the multi-day storm last week. Listen to
local officials and your local weather forecast office for information on
flood stage and cresting levels, Turn around, don't drown.



Wilder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php