Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Apr 14 2025 - 12Z Wed Apr 16 2025

...Moderate to heavy snow over northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin
today, and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan through Tuesday

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Monday...

...Thunderstorms will be possible across portions of central California
and the Four Corners region ...


Moderate to locally heavy lake-enhanced snow will develop over the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan today and tonight as an area of low pressure forms.
Locally strong wind gusts of 35-40 mph with local snowfall maximums of
5-10 inches has resulted in Winter Weather Advisories being issued for
Monday. Travel conditions could be difficult. Areas of northeast
Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and northern lower Michigan will likely see
lower snowfall amounts, but a general range of 2-6 inches remains
possible. On Tuesday, areas in western and northern New York may see
medium probabilities of seeing lake effect snowfall accumulations of 4
inches over areas such as the Tug Hill, Adirondacks, and Chautauqua Ridge.

Severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley,
Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic, including the Washington D.C. metro,
on Monday afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5).  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, strong winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will
be possible. The rainfall amounts expected today over the Appalachians,
West Virginia in particular, has increased. The current precipitation
forecast calls for 1-2 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts
possible, today, and there is a chance for isolated flash flooding.
Therefore, WPC has issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall.

Across the central Plains and Southwest. there will be Elevated fire
weather conditions today and Tuesday with low relative humidity and breezy
winds behind a cold front passage. Temperatures will cool into the 60s,
70s, and low 80s from the central Plains to south Texas behind the cold
front passing through the region today. Temperatures will warm across the
region again on Wednesday as ridging builds in from the west.

For the West, thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday
across the Four Corners region and across the central California valley.
This is being caused by a short-wave trough moving into the Colorado
Valley and providing large scale ascent. There will also be sufficient
surface instability for scattered thunderstorm potential. The Weather
Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday
across the Sacramento Valley and Sierra Nevada.

Wilder