Tropical Discussion - International Desks
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1037 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Forecast Bulletin 24 March 2025 at 1430 UTC:

In the upper levels, there is a weak high pressure over the
eastern Pacific which will enter Central America by Wednesday.
There is also a developing upper-level trough further north, which
will have its axis over the state of Florida into Cuba by
Wednesday morning, as it moves east, its axis expected to be over
the western Tropical Atlantic with its axis just east of the
Bahamas by Thursday morning. However, most of the Atlantic will be
dominated by a high pressure ridge, which will remain in place
through Wednesday, until the aforementioned trough pushes into the
western Tropical Atlantic on Thursday.

The mid levels are fairly vertically stacked with the upper
levels, especially with the bigger features. There is a strong
mid-level high pressure just northeast of the northeastern
Caribbean islands, which will meander over the area through
Wednesday, weakening slightly by midweek. A weak trough is located
across the western Caribbean, which will gradually amplify and
have its axis across the central Caribbean by Wednesday.

The available moisture across the Tropical region will be near to
above normal early this week across Central America, Mexico, Cuba
and the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the rest of the Caribbean islands will
have patches of above to below normal moisture over the next few
days. Tropical South America will have near to below normal
moisture. Venezuela will be particularly dry early this week, with
a LLJ coming in from the Caribbean. In general, the rainfall
pattern into midweek will be mainly trade-wind showers for the
eastern and northeastern Caribbean islands, and onshore flow and
above normal moisture will cause shower and thunderstorm
development across Central America into eastern Mexico. Brief
showers are also expected across Cuba and the Bahamas, but Cuba
has a chance of deepen convection on Wednesday into Thursday as a
mid and upper level trough develops over the area. Northern South
America will have isolated strong thunderstorms each day, but will
generally will observe locally and diurnally induced convection.
That being said, western Ecuador and western Colombia will have
daily thunderstorms as low level onshore flow with above normal
moisture interacts with the diurnal heating and local terrain.


For a graphical representation and details of the areas with
forecast rainfall:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/crb_day1-3.shtml

Alamo...(WPC)